Ron DeSantis is down but is he out?

In the aftermath of the 2022 midterms, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) seemed like an inevitable political juggernaut, having engineered the sole bright spot for Republicans in an otherwise underwhelming electoral cycle. With his “Make America Florida” agenda of culture war posturing and combative social conservatism, DeSantis had positioned himself in the somewhat paradoxical role of both heir apparent to former President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement, as well as a savior of sorts for the “never Trump” wing of the GOP which had grown sick of the former president’s stranglehold on their party. That Trump himself soon began sniping at “Ron DeSanctimonious” amid polling that showed the Florida governor trouncing the former president in a hypothetical primary was proof enough that DeSantis’ star was firmly on the rise. 

With the 2024 presidential primary race now officially underway, DeSantis’ once-bright star is decidedly duller than it once was. After his campaign focused almost exclusively on this week’s Iowa caucuses, DeSantis’ far distant second-place finish behind Trump coupled with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley’s particularly strong third-place showing signaled to many that the governor’s road to the White House was nearing a dead end. DeSantis, however, has not only vowed to stay in the race, but is already looking past the upcoming New Hampshire primary to the “important state” of South Carolina, and Nevada after that, predicting to reporters this week that Haley is “just not going to win any delegates” there. But is DeSantis’ political optimism warranted, or is he simply simply delaying the inevitable? 

Second place in Iowa was “good enough to punch [DeSantis’] ticket” to participate in future primaries, according to Time. Ultimately, however, it may be a “ticket to nowhere.” While his second-place finish meant he’d “hit one mark that he had to,” DeSantis is polling poorly in both New Hampshire and Haley’s home state of South Carolina, making his path to the nomination “unclear” — no matter his commitment to “sticking around to forge it.” 

While his defeat of Haley in Iowa was “thinner” than DeSantis’ team wanted, it was “far better than the death knell of the third-place finish they had feared,” NBC News reported. To that end, the campaign is in “full-on survival mode” at best, and living in a “fantasy land” at worst. Internally, however, the campaign is “rallying around the idea” that it can still persevere in a one-on-one race against Trump. 

DeSantis firmly believes Trump will not make it through the 2024 election, Ron Filipkowski of Midas Touch explained on MSNBC, noting that if you listen to DeSantis on the campaign trail, he is “betting on criminal cases and cholesterol” in hopes of still being in the race by the upcoming party convention.  

Much of the challenge for DeSantis stems from having “emphasized many of the same culturally conservative stances and issues” as Trump, while failing to eat into the former president’s base of support, according to NPR. At the same time, he has “alienated some moderate elements” of the GOP worried about how he would fare in the general election.

Noting that DeSantis has tried to run to Trump’s right — where “there isn’t much room” — the conservative editorial board of The Wall Street Journal urged the governor to drop out of the race now, and “give Ms. Haley a chance to take on Mr. Trump one on one.”

What next? 

Running far behind Haley in New Hampshire, DeSantis seems focused instead on taking the fight to Haley’s home turf, visiting Greenville, South Carolina, immediately after the Iowa caucuses ended. He told reporters that if Haley can’t win there, “I don’t see how she could say she’s gonna win Super Tuesday or any of those other states.”

Going to Greenville “signals to Nikki Haley that this race is not over,” GOP strategist Dave Wilson told CBS. It’s a recognition that “he has got to energize a group of people behind him and knock Nikki Haley off her game.” 

DeSantis has vowed to up his presence in South Carolina in the coming weeks, telling reporters that although he hasn’t “spent a lot of money here yet, we’re gonna start to let us be known a little bit more.”

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