- Gold trades steadily above $2,300, minor shift despite rising US Treasury yields and strong USD.
- Focus on upcoming US data: unemployment claims, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Fed speeches.
- China’s central bank boosts Gold reserves for 18th consecutive month, reflecting continued demand amid global economic uncertainty.
Gold price hovers around familiar levels on Wednesday during the North American session amid rising US Treasury yields and a strong US dollar. The economic docket in the United States remains scarce, with traders awaiting unemployment claims on Thursday, followed by the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday.
The XAU/USD trades at $2,312, down a minimal 0.02% and virtually unchanged. During the week, market players remained laser-focused on speeches by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials amid growing speculation that the US central bank would lower interest rates. Lower interest rates usually benefit the golden metal, which remains trading above the $2,300 threshold.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she expects demand to slow down to bring inflation to 2%, adding that there are risks of cutting rates “too soon.” She said that the current policy is well-positioned and that it is “moderately restrictive.”
The latest US employment report was softer than expected, reigniting fears that the economy would be weighed down and spur faster-than-expected rate cuts. This followed last Wednesday’s Fed decision to hold rates, in which the Fed acknowledged that the dual mandate risks had become more balanced.
Meanwhile, physical demand continues as reports emerged that China’s central bank continued to stock up its Gold inventories, adding 1.9 metric tonnes for 18 straight months of expanding its reserves.
Daily digest market movers: Gold price tumbles below $2,320 as US yields climb
- Gold prices fell amid lower US Treasury yields and a strong US Dollar. The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding 4.49%, up seven basis points (bps) from its opening level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against six other currencies, is up 0.16% to 105.55.
- Last Friday, April’s US NFP missed estimates and trailed March’s figures. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMIs in the manufacturing and services sectors entering contractionary territory might undermine the US Dollar, a tailwind for the golden metal.
- Nevertheless, recent hawkish comments by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who said that the Fed might stay put on interest rates and opened the door to raising the fed funds rate if inflation doesn’t resume its downtrend, bolstered the Greenback.
- Gold has advanced more than 12% so far in 2024, courtesy of expectations that major central banks will begin to reduce rates. Renewed fears that the Middle East conflict could resume between Israel and Hamas can sponsor a leg up in XAU/USD prices.
- According to Reuters, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continued to accumulate Gold for the 18th straight month, adding 60,000 troy ounces to its reserves amid higher prices.
- Following the US NFP data release, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that odds for a quarter-percentage-point cut in September increased from 55% before the report to 85%.
- After the data release, Fed rate cut probabilities increased with traders expecting 36 basis points of rate cuts toward the end of the year.
Technical analysis: Gold price stays bullish despite slumping below $2,320
Gold is upwardly biased despite registering modest losses. Momentum still favors buyers as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory. That would benefit Gold buyers who could “buy the dip.”
XAU/USD buyers need to clear the April 26 high, the latest cycle high at $2,352, if they want to remain hopeful of challenging all-time highs. A breach of the latter will expose the $2,400 figure, followed by the April 19 high at $2,417 and the all-time high of $2,431.
Conversely, further losses are seen if Gold slides beneath the $2,300 mark. The next support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,249.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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