Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Oscar Projections Post Golden Globes and SAG and DGA Awards Nominations

19659001 PLEASE NOTE: 19459004 This projection, put together by Scott Feinberg, 19459005 The Hollywood Reporter’ s managing editor of awards protection, shows Scott’s finest effort to anticipate the habits of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not 19459006 his individual choices. He reaches these forecasts by bring into play discussions with citizens and other market experts, analysis of marketing and awards projects, outcomes of awards events that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be routine updates to show brand-new advancements. * * * Finest Picture 19659004 Frontrunners 19659005 1. 19459005 Oppenheimer (Universal) 19459012 2. Barbie (Warner Bros.) 19459012 3. Poor Things (Searchlight) 19459012 4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple) 5. 19459005 American Fiction (Amazon/MGM) 19459012 6. The Holdovers 19459006 (Focus) 7. Previous Lives 19459006 (A24) 19459012 8. Anatomy of a Fall 19459006 (Neon) 9. Master 19459006 (Netflix) 19459012 10. 19459005 The Zone of Interest (A24) 19659006 Significant Threats 19659007 11. 19459005 Society of the Snow (Netflix) 12. 19459005 The Color Purple 19459006 (Warner Bros.) 19459012 13. 19459005 May December (Netflix) 19459012 14. 19459005 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 19459006 (Sony) 15. Rustin 19459006 (Netflix) 19659008 Possibilities 19659009 16. 19459005 Saltburn 19459006 (Amazon/MGM) 17. Air 19459006 (Amazon/MGM) 18. 19459005 Origin (Neon) 19. Ferrari (Neon) Finest Director 19659011 Frontrunners 19659012 1. Christopher Nolan ( Oppenheimer 19459006 2. Greta Gerwig ( 19459005 Barbie 19459006– 19459013 podcast 3. Martin Scorsese ( Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Yorgos Lanthimos ( Poor Things 19459012 5. Jonathan Glazer ( 19459005 The Zone of Interest 19459006 19659014 Significant Threats 6. Alexander Payne ( The Holdovers 19459012 7. Celine Song ( Previous Lives 19459006 19459012 8. Bradley Cooper ( 19459005 Master 19459006 9. Cable Jefferson ( 19459005 American Fiction 19459006 10. Justine Triet ( Anatomy of a Fall 19459006 19459012 11. Hayao Miyazaki ( 19459005 The Boy and the Heron Possibilities 19659017 12. Todd Haynes ( 19459005 May December 19459006– podcast 19659018 13. Emerald Fennell ( 19459005 Saltburn 19459006– 19459015 podcast 14. J.A. Bayona ( Society of the Snow 19459012 15. Blitz Bazawule ( The Color Purple 19459006 16. Ava DuVernay ( 19459005 Origin — 19459016 podcast 17. Michael Mann ( Ferrari 19659021 Finest Actor Frontrunners 1. Paul Giamatti ( 19459005 The Holdovers — 19459017 podcast 19659024 2. Cillian Murphy ( 19459005 Oppenheimer 3. Bradley Cooper ( 19459005 Genius 19459006 19459012 4. Jeffrey Wright ( 19459005 American Fiction 5. Colman Domingo ( 19459005 Rustin 19659025 Significant Threats 6. Leonardo DiCaprio ( Killers of the Flower Moon 19459006 7. Andrew Scott ( Everybody Strangers 19459012 8. Barry Keoghan ( Saltburn 19459006 19659027 Possibilities 19659028 9. Matt Damon ( Air 19459006 10. Nicolas Cage ( Dream Scenario — podcast 11. Franz Rogowski ( Passages Finest Actress 19659031 Frontrunners 19659032 1. Lily Gladstone ( 19459005 Killers of the Flower Moon 19459012 2. Emma Stone ( Poor Things 19459006– 19459019 podcast 19659033 3. Margot Robbie ( 19459005 Barbie 19459006– podcast 4. Carey Mulligan ( 19459005 Genius 19459006– podcast 19659035 5. Annette Bening ( Nyad Significant Threats 19659037 6. Sandra Hüller ( Anatomy of a Fall 19459006 7. Greta Lee ( 19459005 Previous Lives 19459012 8. Natalie Portman ( 19459005 May December 19459006– 19459022 podcast 9. Helen Mirren ( 19459005 Golda 19459006– podcast 19659039 Possibilities 19659040 10. Alma Pöysti ( 19459005 Fallen Leaves 19459006 19459012 11. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor ( Origin — 19459024 podcast 19659041 12. Fantasia Barrino ( 19459005 The Color Purple 19459012 13. Cailee Spaeny ( Priscilla 19459006 19659042 Finest Supporting Actor Frontrunners 1. Robert Downey Jr. ( Oppenheimer 19459006 2. Ryan Gosling ( 19459005 Barbie 19459006 19459012 3. Robert De Niro ( Killers of the Flower Moon — podcast 19659045 4. Willem Dafoe ( Poor Things — podcast 19659046 5. Mark Ruffalo ( Poor Things 19659047 Significant Threats 19659048 6. Sterling K. Brown ( American Fiction 19459006– podcast 7. Charles Melton ( 19459005 May December 19459006 19459012 8. Dominic Sessa ( The Holdovers 19459006 19659050 Possibilities 19659051 9. Glenn Howerton ( BlackBerry 10. Jesse Plemons ( 19459005 Killers of the Flower Moon 19459006– podcast 19659052 11. Jamie Bell ( 19459005 Everybody Strangers Finest Supporting Actress Frontrunners 1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph ( The Holdovers 2. Danielle Brooks ( 19459005 The Color Purple — podcast 19659056 3. Emily Blunt ( Oppenheimer — podcast 4. Jodie Foster ( 19459005 Nyad 19459006– podcast 19659058 5. Julianne Moore ( May December — podcast 19659059 Significant Threats 19659060 6. Penélope Cruz ( Ferrari 19459006– podcast 7. Rosamund Pike ( Saltburn 19459006– 19459034 podcast 8. America Ferrera ( Barbie 19459006 9. Sandra Hüller ( 19459005 The Zone of Interest 19659063 Possibilities 10. Erika Alexander ( 19459005 American Fiction 19459006 11. Taraji P. Henson ( 19459005 The Color Purple 19459006– 19459035 podcast 19659065 12. Claire Foy ( 19459005 Everyone Strangers — podcast 13. Viola Davis ( 19459005 Air Finest Adapted Screenplay Frontrunners 1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan) 19459012 2. 19459005 Barbie (Noah Baumbach & & Greta Gerwig)– podcast 19459008 (Gerwig) 3. Poor Things 19459006 (Tony McNamara) 19459012 4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & & Martin Scorsese) 19459012 5. 19459005 American Fiction 19459006 (Cord Jefferson) 19659070 Significant Threats 6. 19459005 The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer) 7. 19459005 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 19459006 (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & & Chris Miller) 8. 19459005 Society of the Snow 19459006 (J.A. Bayona, Nicolás Casariego, Jaime Marques & & Bernat Vilaplana) Possibilities 9. 19459005 Everyone Strangers (Andrew Haigh) 10. 19459005 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret 19459006 (Kelly Fremon Craig) 11. 19459005 Origin (Ava DuVernay) 19659074 Finest Original Screenplay Frontrunners 1. Previous Lives (Celine Song) 2. The Holdovers (David Hemingson) 19459012 3. 19459005 Anatomy of a Fall 19459006 (Arthur Harari & & Justine Triet) 4. Master (Bradley Cooper & & Josh Singer) 19459012 5. 19459005 May December 19459006 (Samy Burch & & Alex Mechanik) Significant Threats 19659078 6. Saltburn 19459006 (Emerald Fennell) 19459012 7. Air 19459006 (Alex Convery) Possibilities 8. Rustin 19459006 (Dustin Lance Black & & Julian Breece) 19459012 9. Asteroid City 19459006 (Wes Anderson & & Roman Coppola) Finest International Feature Frontrunners 19659083 1. 19459005 The Zone of Interest 19459006 (United Kingdom) 19459012 2. 19459005 Society of the Snow (Spain) 19459012 3. 19459005 The Taste of Things (France) 19459012 4. 19459005 4 Daughters 19459006 (Tunisia) 5. The Teacher’s Lounge 19459006 (Germany) Significant Threats 19659085 6. Perfect Days 19459006 (Japan) 19459012 7. 20 Days in Mariupol 19459006 (Ukraine) 19659086 Can’t Yet Call Godland (Iceland) 19659088 Totem (Mexico) Io Capitano (Italy) Fallen Leaves (Finland) The Promised Land (Denmark) 19659092 The Mother of All Lies 19459006 (Morocco) 19659093 Amerikatsi (Armenia) The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan) 19659095 Finest Documentary Feature Frontrunners 19659097 1. American Symphony 19459006 (Netflix) 2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple)– podcast 19459008 (Davis Guggenheim) 3. Beyond Utopia (Roadside) 4. Marked from the Beginning (Netflix)– podcast (Roger Ross Williams) 19459012 5. 19459005 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS) Significant Threats 19659099 6. 19459005 The Eternal Memory (MTV) 19459012 7. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo) 8. 4 Daughters (Kino Lorber) 9. To Kill a Tiger (still looking for U.S. circulation) 19459012 10. Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy 19459006 (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist) Can’t Yet Call 32 Sounds (Abramorama) 19659102 Apolonia, Apolonia 19459006 (still looking for U.S. circulation) Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (HBO) 19659104 In the Rearview 19459006 (Film Movement) 19659105 A Still Small Voice 19459006 (Abramorama) 19659106 Finest Animated Feature Frontrunners 19659108 1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 19459006 (Sony) 2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) 19459012 3. 19459005 Essential (Pixar)– podcast (Pete Docter) 19459012 4. 19459005 Nimona 19459006 (Netflix) 5. 19459005 The Super Mario Bros. Film (Illumination) 19659109 Significant Threats 6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount) 7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix) 19459012 8. Leo 19459006 (Netflix) 19459012 9. 19459005 Dream (Disney) 19459012 10. 19459005 They Shot the Piano Player 19459006 (Sony Classics) 19659111 Can’t Yet Call 19659112 Remarkable Maurice (Viva) Deep Sea 19459006 (Viva) Ernest & & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS) The First Slam Dunk 19459006 (GKIDS) Migration 19459006 (Illumination) 19659117 Robotic Dreams 19459006 (Neon) Stopmotion (IFC) 19659119 Suzume (Toho) Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks) 19659121 Finest Cinematography 19659122 Frontrunners 19659123 1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema) 19459012 2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto) 19459012 3. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan) 4. The Zone of Interest 19459006 (Lukasz Zal) 5. 19459005 Master (Matthew Libatique) 19659124 Significant Threats 19659125 6. 19459005 Barbie 19459006 (Rodrigo Prieto) 7. 19459005 Saltburn 19459006 (Linus Sandgren) 8. The Color Purple 19459006 (Dan Laustsen) 19459012 9. Society of the Snow 19459006 (Pedro Luque) 10. Ferrari (Erik Messerschmidt) 11. 19459005 Napoleon 19459006 (Dariusz Wolski) Possibilities 12. Previous Lives 19459006 (Shabier Kirchner) 13. May December 19459006 (Christopher Blauvelt) 19459012 14. 19459005 The Taste of Things (Jonathan Ricquebourg) 19459012 15. 19459005 The Holdovers 19459006 (Eigil Byrid) 19459012 16. 19459005 Air (Robert Richardson) 19459012 17. 19459005 The Killer 19459006 (Erik Messerschmidt) 19659128 Finest Costume Design Frontrunners 1. 19459005 Barbie (Jacqueline Durran) 2. Poor Things 19459006 (Holly Waddington) 3. 19459005 Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West) 4. The Color Purple 19459006 (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck) 5. 19459005 Wonka 19459006 (Lindy Hemming) 19659131 Significant Threats 19659132 6. Napoleon (David Crossman & & Janty Yates) 19459012 7. 19459005 Master (Mark Bridges) 8. 19459005 The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood) 19459012 9. Oppenheimer 19459006 (Ellen Mirojnick) 10. Priscilla (Stacey Battat) 19659133 Possibilities 11. 19459005 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Ann Roth) 12. Ferrari 19459006 (Massimo Cantini Parrini) 13. Asteroid City (Milena Canonero) 19459012 14. Saltburn (Sophie Canale) 19459012 17. 19459005 The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & & Snakes 19459006 (Trish Summerville) 19659135 Best Film Editing 19659136 Frontrunners 1. Oppenheimer 19459006 (Jennifer Lame) 2. 19459005 Poor Things 19459006 (Yorgos Mavropsaridis) 19459012 3. Barbie 19459006 (Nick Houy) 4. Killers of the Flower Moon 19459006 (Thelma Schoonmaker) 19459012 5. 19459005 The Holdovers (Kevin Tent) Significant Threats 6. 19459005 Genius (Michelle Tesoro) 19459012 7. Ferrari 19459006 (Pietro Scalia) 19459012 8. 19459005 The Killer 19459006 (Kirk Baxter) 19459012 9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 19459006 (Michael Andrews) 10. 19459005 Previous Lives (Keith Fraase) Possibilities 11. 19459005 Air 19459006 (William Goldenberg) 19459012 12. 19459005 American Fiction (Hilda Rasula) 19459012 13. The Zone of Interest (Paul Watts) 19459012 14. Objective: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One 19459006 (Eddie Hamilton) 19459012 15. 19459005 The Color Purple (Jon Poll) Finest Makeup & & Hairstyling 19659143 Frontrunners 19659144 1. Master (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & & Lori McCoy-Bell) 19459012 2. 19459005 Poor Things 19459006 (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & & Josh Weston) 19459012 3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & & Thomas Nellen) 4. 19459005 Golda 19459006 (Suzi Battersby, Ashra Kelly-Blue & & Karen Hartley Thomas) 19459012 5. 19459005 Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & & Montse Ribé) 19659145 Significant Threats 6. Oppenheimer 19459006 (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & & Ahou Mofid) 19459012 7. Ferrari 19459006 (Elisabetta Arlotti, Nicolas Iles, Feredrico Martellacci & & Leonardo Signoretti) 8. 19459005 Napoleon (Jana Carboni & & Francesco Pegoretti) 9. 19459005 Beau Is Afraid 19459006 (Félix Larivière & & Colin Penman) 19459012 10. 19459005 The Last Voyage of the Demeter 19459006 (TBD) 19659147 Finest Original Score 19659148 Frontrunners 19659149 1. 19459005 Oppenheimer 19459006 (Ludwig Göransson) 19459012 2. 19459005 Killers of the Flower Moon 19459006 (Robbie Robertson) 19459012 3. 19459005 Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix) 4. 19459005 Barbie (Mark Ronson & & Andrew Wyatt) 19459012 5. 19459005 The Zone of Interest 19459006 (Mica Levi) Significant Threats 6. 19459005 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton) 7. 19459005 The Holdovers (Mark Orton) 19459012 8. 19459005 Essential (Thomas Newman) 19459012 9. 19459005 American Fiction 19459006 (Laura Karpman) 19459012 10. Society of the Snow (Michael Giacchino) Possibilities 19659153 11. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 19459006 (John Williams) 12. American Symphony 19459006 (Jon Batiste) 19459012 13. The Boy and the Heron 19459006 (Joe Hisaishi) 19459012 14. The Color Purple (Kris Bowers) 19459012 15. Saltburn 19459006 (Anthony Willis) Finest Original Song 19659155 Frontrunners 1. “What Was I Made For?” ( Barbie , Billie Eilish & & Finneas– podcasts ( 1 and 2 19459008 2. “I’m Just Ken” ( 19459005 Barbie , Mark Ronson & & Andrew Wyatt– 19459041 podcast (Ronson) 19459012 3. “Road to Freedom” ( 19459005 Rustin , Lenny Kravitz– 19459042 podcast 19659157 4. “It Never Went Away” ( American Symphony 19459006, Jon Batiste & & Dan Wilson 19459012 5. “The Fire Inside” ( Flamin’ Hot , Diane Warren– 19459043 podcast Significant Threats 6. “Dance the Night” ( Barbie 19459006, Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & & Andrew Wyatt– podcasts ( 19459044 Lipa 19459008 & 19459041 Ronson 19459008 7. “High Life” ( 19459005 Plants and Son , John Carney & & Gary Clark 19459012 8. “Meet in the Middle” from 19459005 Plants and Son , John Carney, Gary Clark & & Eve Hewson 19459012 9. “Keep It Movin'” ( 19459005 The Color Purple , Denisia Andrews, Halle Bailey, Brittany Coney & & Morten Ristorp 10. “Can’t Catch Me Now” ( The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes , Dan Nigro & & Olivia Rodrigo– podcast (Rodrigo) 19659160 Possibilities 19659161 11. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon , Scott George 19459012 12. “Quiet Eyes” ( 19459005 Previous Lives , Zach Dawes & & Sharon Von Etten 19459012 13. “Am I Dreaming” ( Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse , Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Rakim Mayers, Landon Wayne & & Leland Wayne 19459012 14. “Superpower (I)” ( 19459005 The Color Purple , Terius Gesteelde-Diamant 19459012 15. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from 19459005 Asteroid City 19459006, Wes Anderson & & Jarvis Cocker 19659162 Finest Production Design Frontrunners 19659164 1. 19459005 Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & & Katie Spencer) 2. 19459005 Oppenheimer 19459006 (Ruth De Jong & & Claire Kaufman) 19459012 3. 19459005 Killers of the Flower Moon 19459006 (Jack Fish & & Adam Willis) 4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & & Szusza Mihalek) 5. 19459005 Master (Rena DeAngelo & & Kevin Thompson) 19659165 Significant Threats 19659166 6. 19459005 Saltburn 19459006 (Suzie Davis & & Charlotte Diricks) 7. Asteroid City 19459006 (Kris Moran & & Adam Stockhausen) 8. Wonka 19459006 (Nathan Crowley & & Lee Sandales) 9. The Color Purple 19459006 (Paul D. Austerberry & & Larry Dias) 10. Napoleon 19459006 (Elli Griff & & Arthur Max) 11. 19459005 Society of the Snow 19459006 (Alain Bainée & & Angela Nahum) 19659167 Possibilites 12. 19459005 The Zone of Interest 19459006 (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & & Katarzyna Sikora) 19459012 13. 19459005 Ferrari (Maria Djurkovic & & Sophie Phillips) 19459012 14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 19459006 (Patrick O’Keefe) 15. 19459005 Priscilla (Patricia Cuccia & & Tamara Deverell) 19459012 16. 19459005 Air 19459006 (François Audouy & & Jan Pascale) 19459012 17. 19459005 May December (Sam Lisenco & & Jess Royal) 19659169 Finest Sound Frontrunners 19659171 1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & & Gary A. Rizzo) 19459012 2. 19459005 Genius (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & & Dean Zupancic) 19459012 3. 19459005 Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson & & Bernard Weiser) 19459012 4. 19459005 Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton & & Mark Ulano) 5. 19459005 Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O’Connell & & Nina Rice) 19659172 Significant Threats 19659173 6. 19459005 The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn) 19459012 7. 19459005 Napoleon 19459006 (Stephane Bucher, James Harrison, Paul Massey, William Miller & & Oliver Tarney) 8. 19459005 The Killer 19459006 (Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod & & Stephen Urata) 19459012 9. 19459005 The Creator 19459006 (Erik Aadahl, Tom Ozanich, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt & & Dean Zupancic) 10. Objective: Impossible– Dead Reckoning, Part One 19459006 (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather & & Chris Munro) 19659174 Finest Visual Effects Frontrunners 19659176 1. Poor Things 19659177 2. 19459005 Society of the Snow 19659178 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 19659179 4. The Creator 5. Objective: Impossible– Dead Reckoning, Part One Significant Threats 6. 19459005 Napoleon 7. Godzilla: Minus One 8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 9. 19459005 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 10. Rebel Moon: Part One– A Child of Fire 19659187 Finest Animated Short 19659188 Can’t Yet Call 27 (ARTE Mediathek) 19659190 Boom Eeva (Miyu) Humo (Smoke) I’m Hip A Kind of Testament 19459012 Koerkorter (Dog Apartment) Letter to a Pig (Miyu) Ninety-Five Senses 19459012 When Upon a Studio 19459006 (Disney) Our Uniform 19459012 Pachyderme 19459012 Pete 19459006 (The Criterion Channel) War Is Over! Influenced by the Music of John & & Yoko Wild Summon 19659194 Finest Documentary Short Frontrunners 1. 19459005 The ABCs of Book Banning (MTV)– 19459046 podcast (Sheila Nevins) 19459012 2. Camp Courage (Netflix) 19459012 3. Choosing Vote 19459006 ( 19459005 The New Yorker 19459012 4. The Barber of Little Rock 19459006 ( The New Yorker 19459006 19459012 5. 19459005 Last Song from Kabul 19459006 (MTV) Significant Threats The Last Repair Shop 19459006 ( 19459005 L.A. Times / Searchlight) Nǎi Nai & & Wài Pó 19459006 (Hulu) Can’t Yet Call Bear In between Earth & & Sky 19459006 (POV) Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games How We Get Free If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis Island in Between 19459012 Sanctuary 19459006 ( 19459005 New York City Times 19459006 Op-Docs) Wings of Dust 19459006 (still looking for U.S. circulation) Finest Live-Action Short 19659205 Frontrunners 19659206 1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix) 19459012 2. 19459005 Weird Way of Life (Sony Classics)– 19459047 podcast 19459008 (Pedro Almodóvar) 19459012 3. The After 19459006 (Netflix)– 19459048 podcast 19459008 (David Oyelowo) Can’t Yet Call The Anne Frank Gift Shop (Reboot) An Avocado Pit Bienvenidos a Los Angeles Dead Cat Great Boy 19459012 Invincible Undetectable Border 19459012 Knight of Fortune 19459006 ( The New Yorker 19459006 19659210 The One Note Man Red, White and Blue The Shepherd 19459006 (Disney) Yellow Learn more 19459008