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Firozabad (western UP)
The Yadav pocketborough seats like Mainpuri, crucial contests unfolds even in BJP fortress of Bareilly, Fatehpur Sikri
UP Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya with BJP prospect S.P. Singh Baghel throughout a roadway program for Lok Sabha surveys
As the contest moves from the sugarcane belt in Shamli/Muzaffarnagar in western Uttar Pradesh to the potato-growing locations in Braj-Rohilkhand area, the ‘Yadav area’ starts where Samajwadi Party has actually held sway, surpassed by the BJP in the Modi wave that swept through in 2014 and 2019.
Of the 10 Uttar Pradesh seats going to surveys in the 3rd stage on Tuesday (May 7), the BJP was the triumphant celebration in 8 throughout the 2019 elections. The Samajwadi Party (SP) might win just 2– its pocket-borough seat of Mainpuri and the Muslim bulk Sambhal from where the veteran Shafiqur Rahman Barq emerged triumphant.
This time around, in a wave-less and lukewarm election, regional problems, aspects and prospects are controling and the SP remains in a close battle in a minimum of 5 of the 10 constituencies consisting of Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Sambhal and Bareilly. In the reserved seat of Agra together with Aonla, Badaun, Etah and Hathras, the BJP has an edge.
BJP’s social experiment
The area shows the success of the social engineering experiment by the BJP which has actually concentrated on the lower OBCs or “non-Yadav OBCs” and Dalits besides Jatavs, who mostly elect the BSP. A plain example of this is Agra, the city that houses the Taj Mahal and the constituency which is understood in political parlance as the “Dalit capital” of northern India with a nearly 22 percent population of Scheduled Castes, almost three-fourth of them being Jatavs, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)’s assistance base.
The BSP has actually not been able to clinch this seat even though it has a Jatav population of over 7 lakh. The BJP has actually been winning the mayoral surveys because 1989. The BJP won all the 5 Assembly sections under the Agra Lok Sabha seat in the 2022 State elections and has actually been winning the Agra Lok Sabha seat because 2009. The Union Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare S. P. Singh Baghel won in 2019 and he is the preferred to win once again this time around too.
“The BJP has a clear edge in Agra. Both the Congress and the BSP have actually fielded Jatav prospects and the Muslims are most likely to elect the SP. The BJP corners the rest of the castes. They have a much better prospect too. S. P. Singh Baghel is extremely strong and there is no citizen recall for either the BSP or the SP prospects,” stated Gaurav Valmiki, a Dalit activist in Agra.
Agra, BJP is strong in Etah where previous UP Chief Minister late Kalyan Singh’s kid Rajveer Singh is the sitting MP and BJP prospect. Rajveer Singh had actually protected 54.82 percent of the popular vote in this constituency in 2019, beating Devendra Yadav of the SP. This time too, residents think him to be on a strong wicket. The BJP is similarly strong in Hathras where the sitting MP Rajvir Singh Diler had actually beat the SP’s Ramji Lal Suman Ramjilal Suman by over 2 lakh votes in 2019.
SP’s target
SP has actually bounced back in some other seats. In Fatehpur Sikri and Firozabad neighbouring Agra, the BJP is secured a strong contest with the SP-Congress alliance.
In Firozabad, which the BJP had actually won in 2019 by 28,781 votes, not a large margin in the Lok Sabha surveys, the SP is considering a resurgence. This is due to the fact that in the last Lok Sabha elections, the Yadav household’s internal strife had actually played out with Mulayam Singh Yadav’s bro Shivpal Yadav objecting to as an independent to cut into the significant Yadav assistance base in this constituency. While the SP’s main prospect lost by 28,781 votes, Shivpal Yadav handled to amass 91,869 votes which mainly originated from the household’s faithful Yadav assistance base. This time, the SP wants to combine the Yadav vote and Muslims who extremely support the INDIA bloc.
There are an overall of 4.5 lakh Yadav votes in this constityency and about 3 lakh Muslims. The non-Yadav OBCs consisting of the Lodh Rajputs, Nishads, Kushwahas et al who choose the BJP together make up about 4 lakh votes. SP appears to be on a strong wicket.
In Fatehpur Sikri, the BJP needs to have been relatively positive, considered that it had actually won by a margin of 4,95,065 votes in the 2019 elections. The residents are dissatisfied with the sitting MP Rajkumar Chahar and the Congress has actually fielded a radical prospect Ramnath Sikarwar, a Thakur who is being enthusiastically promoted by his neighborhood.
While Mainpuri and Sambhal have regional caste formulas and demographics favouring the SP-BSP alliance, a curious contest is afoot in Bareilly where the BJP’s regional stalwart Santosh Gangwar had actually been winning considering that 1989. This time, Santosh Gangwar has actually been dropped in favour of Chhatrapal Singh Gangwar who secured an eager contest with Praveen Singh Aron of the Congress.