Tuesday’s ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court that former President Donald Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency under the U.S. Constitution’s insurrection clause immediately turned the legal and political world upside down. Legal commentators went into overdrive explaining what the decision meant, and political analysts began to read the political tea leaves.
It is very likely that the Supreme Court will take up Trump’s appeal. As a result, those focusing on the law have days, weeks or even months to consider the legal arguments, which will not be settled until the ruling (and probably not even then). But political operatives of both parties don’t have the luxury of waiting. They immediately need to prepare not only for every possible ruling from the Supreme Court, but also for the fallout in the meantime leading up to the nine justices’ ruling.
So it isn’t so much that the Colorado ruling is good for Trump; it just doesn’t hurt him.
The major question among political pundits is: Which candidate are these decisions good for? Overwhelmingly, the knee-jerk answer has been Trump. The argument goes that this will rally his followers and harden their support for Trump in the primary and general election.
That argument is half-right. After all, Trump’s support among his followers hasn’t fallen off and has even grown despite the announcement of four criminal indictments with 91 separate charges. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll even shows Trump beating President Biden 46% to 44% among registered voters (though that 2% gap is within the margin of error). But as we have seen time and again, the voters that supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 are unmovable. So it isn’t so much that the Colorado ruling is good for Trump; it just doesn’t hurt him.
Biden on the other hand, appears to be losing ground among his core supports, including Hispanic, Black and young Americans. To be clear, though, there is no way that, come Election Day, those voters will vote for Donald Trump. The question is, Will they show up and vote at all, and what can motivate them? Biden needs every single vote he got last time. That’s no easy task, especially when it comes to the Republicans and center-right independents that voted for Trump in 2016 and then for Biden in 2020. These voters are frustrated with Biden, but will not vote for Trump.
So what message can unite the disappointed left and aggravated right-leaning voters? Democracy. It worked in 2018, 2020 and 2022, and it can work again in 2024.
Whatever the Supreme Court rules, the decision will tear this country apart. If Trump is allowed to be on the ballot in Colorado, half of the country will be outraged, and if Trump is barred from being on the ballot, the other half of the country with be irate. Either way, millions of Americans will view this decision as an attack on democracy. Trump voters will remain just as loyal and motivated as before. However, with the issue of democracy front and center, Biden can once again run on protecting the republic.
The Supreme Court’s decision will reignite the voters that Biden so desperately needs.
No matter how much Biden and his team promotes his successes — and there are many people concerned about their pocketbooks — no amount of talk about Bidenomics or infrastructure will capture the immediate need to vote. The Biden campaign has been looking for an opportunity to engage and motivate his 2020 voters, and democracy is it.
The Supreme Court’s decision will reignite the voters that Biden so desperately needs. So which candidate are these decisions good for? In the long run, it is Biden.
Susan Del Percio is a Republican strategist, political analyst for MSNBC and Know Your Value contributor.